Cast your minds back 12 months ago. The Sakhir Grand Prix was one to forget for this year’s title contenders: For Max, because he got caught up in a first lap tangle, and for Lewis, because he contracted Covid-19 and couldn’t take part. It was almost like a reset button was pressed for both of them there. Their battle for the 2021 title, is one that really started the week after Sakhir in December of last year. As the F1 circus descended on Abu Dhabi for the season finale, Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton had secured both titles with many points in hand. On paper, the race was a dead rubber with drivers, teams and all involved just counting down the days to their long-awaited Christmas break.
As events transpired, it proved to be an utterly dominant display from Max Verstappen in the Red Bull, who took a lights-to-flag victory miles ahead of the rest. Ironically, it was a performance typical of Lewis Hamilton, the seven time champion who himself could only muster up a 3rd place finish. That weekend Max and Red Bull fired a warning shot – that they could in fact put up a fight to Mercedes – and the 2021 season has proved it.
With two races remaining, Max leads the Driver’s standings by 8 points from Lewis, with Mercedes just 5 ahead of Red Bull in the constructors. There’s been much hyperbole written about this year so far – that we’re witnessing the greatest season ever, and a battle for the championship akin to Senna v Prost. In some respects, this is easily understandable – as F1 fans, we’ve been starved of a close championship fight for several years, and now that we’ve got one, it tastes so much sweeter. With the teams carrying over last year’s cars into 2021 and following on from a period of stability in the technical regulations, the racing has gotten much more competitive from the top of the grid, right down to the bottom. Red Bull and Mercedes have been so closely matched, that it’s often been up to Hamilton and Verstappen to make the difference, pushing both of them to a level that is streets ahead of the rest.
There’s been much talk this year about ‘Red Bull’ and ‘Mercedes circuits. With very little to separate them performance-wise, other factors have inevitably come into play. Track configuration, tyre allocations and temperatures along with the drivers’ talents have played a major role in deciding victory at Grand Prix this season. Red Bull began the season with the fastest car but didn’t quite capitalise on their advantage, while Mercedes have since clawed back more performance from solving underlying issues with their car. Red Bull this year have typically run a high drag car that runs well on tracks with plenty of slow-medium speed corners that require good rear end grip. Meanwhile, Mercedes have typically run a low-drag setup on their cars and have performed well on faster circuits where straight-line speed is important. The result has been a pendulum effect, where the advantage has swung back and forth between both teams all year.
The battle has been pitched as the experienced racer versus the young pretender, a description that doesn’t give Verstappen the credit he deserves. After all, this is his seventh season in the sport, with 19 wins, 57 podiums and 12 pole positions under his belt. He’s no stranger to competing at the sharp end of the grid and it shows in his development both on and off the track. Early in his career, he had a habit of crashing into things with his aggression getting the better of him, as Esteban Ocon found out in Brazil a few years ago. What’s been most pronounced this year, is Max’s shift in attitude and approach. He’s still as aggressive as ever on track, but he’s rounded the edges off his style and can bring the car home in one piece more often than not. Off track, he’s stoical in the interview pen, not getting too fussed whether a given result was good or bad, preferring now to always keep one eye on the bigger championship picture.
When you look at Max’s performance over the season, it’s evident that he’s in the form of his life right now. Ever since Sakhir 2020, he’s been glued to the sharp end of the grid – winning from pole when everything went to plan, or finishing second to Lewis whenever the car has lacked some pace. He’s been quick, consistent and gotten his elbows out when he’s needed to. However, his season hasn’t been without controversy. The first major flashpoint was Silverstone, where Max and Lewis tangled, sending the Dutchman into the barriers. It was a critical moment in the championship, with Max’s lead shrinking from 33 points to just 8 – marking the point where the championship duel began to ratchet up in intensity.
By his own standards, 2021 hasn’t gone how Hamilton might have once hoped. Having collected an impressive 11 wins from 16 races in 2020, his strike rate this year has diminished to 7 from 20. While much of this is down to Verstappen and Red Bull’s newfound pace, Mercedes have to take some of the blame for reduced returns. Their strategy calls for Hamilton in Monaco and Hungary lost him a chunk of points, and they did not initially adapt well to the rule changes concerning the rear of the floor for 2021. Nonetheless, Lewis has driven with great poise and intelligence, at times netting the team a victory against the odds – his exceptional drive in Brazil for example.
In wheel-to-wheel combat, he has been hard, but fair. He was penalised on his way to victory in Silverstone for his crash with Max, but claims of malice on his part are misplaced. As was also the case in the Monza tangle, Lewis generally seeks to protect the racing line and won’t give any more space to his competitors than he’s obliged to. Max, on the other hand, still has a tendency to put his car in places where it shouldn’t be, showing that he still has room to develop as a racer. However, Lewis has also made mistakes en-route – namely flicking the brake switch in Baku which cost him a win and his slide into the gravel at Imola, trying the lap George Russell.
Lewis, at this stage in his career has little left to prove – with one exception. He’s riding on the cusp of winning a record eighth world title, which would undoubtedly cement his status as statistically the greatest F1 driver of all time. With a major overhaul of the technical regulations next year, and his advancing age, there’s no guarantee that he will ever get as good a chance to win an eighth title as he does now. While Hamilton has demonstrated time and again that he can deliver under pressure, having Verstappen breathe down his neck and an elusive record to chase, creates a different kind of pressure for him to handle.
There are a number of factors in play heading into the penultimate race. With the Championship as tight as it is, the points for fastest lap could potentially decide the title. Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas also have a job on their hands – in a nutshell, to make life difficult for the opposing team, by either stealing the fastest lap way from them or by staying within their pit windows. If trouble hits one or both Verstappen and Hamilton, the impetus is on Perez and Bottas to fight for the win and take home valuable points for their teams. Another thing to watch for in Jeddah, is the wing specification that Red Bull decide to run. In both Brazil and Qatar, they had difficulty running their favoured medium downforce rear wing on the cars and had to opt for the less ideal high downforce package. Max and Red Bull’s chances of competing for victory in Saudi Arabia may depend on whether they can run the wings they want. Red Bull gives you wings, so they say.
Some have predicted that the Jeddah track will suit Mercedes, due to its high-speed nature. Lewis will be running the engine that took him to victory in Brazil and on paper, the fast, flowing string of corners may play more to the strengths of the Mercedes car than the Red Bull. However, something to consider is that Jeddah is a brand-new track with a freshly-laid surface. The lack of any running prior to the Grand Prix will likely result in it having a low grip surface. The Turkish Grand Prix in 2020 demonstrated how a low grip surface affects this generation of cars, a race where Mercedes struggled in dry conditions, relative to Red Bull. Also worth considering is the fact that Jeddah is a circuit with limited run-off and a few blind corner entries – which are the sorts of ingredients that point to the likelihood of a crash-strewn race with a great degree of Safety Car influence. The chances of a surprise result are higher than normal as is the potential for one or both of the championship contenders to be knocked off course.
With Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi left, I reckon it’s still advantage to Max. The reality is that Lewis most likely needs two perfectly executed weekends to win the championship. As mentioned, Jeddah is a fast, tight and low-grip street track, that could easily trip Lewis up, who wants nothing more than just a clean weekend. Max, on the other hand, can still afford to have an off-weekend in Saudi Arabia and still clinch the championship as long as he wins Abu Dhabi. So, while Max is leading the championship, the pressure is really on Lewis to deliver. If he can pull it off, it will demonstrate that he is worthy of being F1’s all-time record title-holder.
Once the dust has settled on Jeddah, the championship picture will undoubtedly become clearer. Max Verstappen could be crowned in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as World Champion, but the mathematics tell us it’s an outside shot. Lewis Hamilton could in fact retake the lead of the Championship, provided Mercedes claim a 1–2. Or, as things stand currently, the Championship could still be hanging in the balance with only a few, or perhaps no points separating either one heading into the season finale. Only once the chequered flag falls in Abu Dhabi, can anything be taken for granted as this thrilling battle draws to a close.